A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Each authors two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will win here and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster should engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
