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China has sent its coast guard into the maritime area of the Diaoyu islands and military drones near outlying Japanese territory as Beijing ramps up strains following the Japan's leader's remarks regarding Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

This past Sunday, the China's maritime patrol announced that its ships conducted a “rights enforcement patrol” through the waters of the Senkaku, which are administered by Japan but also claimed by Beijing.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation performed surveillance within the maritime jurisdiction of the Senkaku islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity conducted by the China coast guard to uphold its rights and interests,” the statement said.

Diplomatic Spat

China and Japan have consistently clashed around the islands but the recent developments come amid an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japan's leader, Sanae Takaichi, addressed lawmakers that if Beijing assaults the self-governing island of Taiwan it could trigger a armed reaction from Japan.

That provoked a furious reaction from Beijing, which has indicated it demands a withdrawal from Takaichi.

Taiwan's Position

Beijing asserts Taiwan as its sovereign land and plans to incorporate it under what it describes as “reunification”. It has left open the military option. Taiwan’s government and people categorically refuse the prospect of Chinese rule – choosing to preserve the status quo without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if necessary.

An military assault by China would threaten to spiral into a international confrontation, possibly drawing in the United States and other allies including Japan, which has territory just 110km (68 miles) from the island.

Military Activity

In Taiwan, the military authorities reported this weekend that it had observed 30 Chinese military aircraft, multiple naval vessels and one government vessel, which was likely the maritime patrol, operating around the island over the past 24 hours.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to multiple UAVs flying between the island and the Japan's territory off its northeastern shoreline, appearing to go unusually near to Yonaguni. PLA movements there are not rare, but uncommon, and Chinese military activity in the island's ADIZ generally has been minimal in the past month.

Late on Saturday, the defense officials said China had been carrying out another “combined military exercise” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It noted Taiwan had sent its own aircraft and ships to monitor the situation. The island reports such Chinese patrols a few times monthly as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an continuous strategic pressure.

Political Strain

Japan has been experiencing increased strain from Beijing since Takaichi made her comments, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in Osaka prompting a formal protest from Tokyo by stating that “the dirty head that sticks itself out must be cut off”.

Beijing then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first time in more than two years, and Beijing's military authorities stated that any Japanese intervention would be doomed to fail.

Warning for Citizens

On Friday, China cautioned its citizens against travelling to Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “appropriate measures”, though it provided no details.

Multiple carriers from China announced this weekend that flights to Tokyo could be refunded or changed for free.

Adding to the tensions, China’s government on the weekend urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it described as an unstable security environment.

Although not an outright prohibition, a significant decrease in the population of learners from China could have a negative impact on Japanese universities. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were studying in Japan last year, according to education statistics. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the single biggest group.

Official Commentary

Late on Saturday, a official press commentary accused Takaichi of staging a diplomatic maneuver that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a small-scale encounter; it would likely draw in other powers, including the US, and could rapidly escalate to a large-scale conflict with unimaginable consequences.”

Policy Standpoints

The administration in Taipei says only its people can decide its future. Japanese leaders have traditionally refrained from discussing the island openly when addressing potential conflicts, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also favoured by Tokyo’s main security ally, the United States.

However, Beijing's governing party says the incorporation of the island with the mainland China is “inevitable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, Beijing has also been increasing its political operations and its rhetoric towards Taiwan.