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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward formula. It frequently acts as a form of apology. Our apologies we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who engineered the most dramatic improvement receives the prize. In reality, it sparks an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding excellent leadership or merely the biggest shock.

However this year's competition is distinctly different. The list of nominees is unusually strong. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent division winners declining and recent strugglers rising together. Under an ordinary season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in this chaotic and entertaining year, he's competing with several other elite coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical vote ought to look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors adore signal-callers. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the chance to showcase his special talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent performance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an offense built entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that creates wide-open targets everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been able to conjure magic from broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a specific offensive vision. Virtually each gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the organization with the level of hype Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive genius but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a ordinary year, he would be the overwhelming choice. But this is not a typical campaign!

The area where Johnson's case runs slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for long-term winning. However Johnson comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has orchestrated a rapid resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has nailed the off-field aspects, which wasn't a guarantee following his initial public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen bet on newbies. Starting with the head coach on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the team stumbling once more. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking reliable ones. The coach recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller could have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off after that time, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him just one place ahead of other QBs.

Still